by tiger » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:09 am
If you don't have to the time to study and understand what really happens, don't invest in stocks. By the time that you hear news that your stock is dropping like a rock, it's too late. You can have a portfolio manager look after it, but you still have to sort of understand what is going on. The best returns are buy low and sell high, but you have to know when it's low enough to buy (yet not risky) and when it's high enough to sell (before the bubble bursts).
Minimum returns should be greater than any debt interest that you have. If you have a mortgage of 4%, then your return should be greater than that AFTER TAXES (you're paying your debt with after tax money). This usually means that your investment would have to give you a return of 1.6 times your debt interest. If you can't get that return, then it's better for you to pay off your debt first. If you have credit card debt @ 22% interest, then you need a guaranteed minimum return of 35.2%.
Stock returns aren't guaranteed. Also be careful of misleading returns b/c they don't factor in compound interest.
i.e. Stock price in 2006 $10. Now $15. 50% return over 5 years = 10% return/year. => bad math. The stock needs to be $16.1 for it to be a true 10% annual rate of return. Compound interest (1.10^5). Also the stock could have been at $10 for 4 years and then it suddenly jumped to $15 in the last year. Average looks good, but the stats are a bit skewed. For you stats geeks, think about standard deviation. Because stocks aren't going to jump up 50% every year.
My advice, always pay down your mortgage (debt) first. Always better to be debt free and invest with money that isn't tied to your home. Plus the return is guaranteed. When you have a clear title (no mortgage) piece of property, it's easier to get loans, line of credits, etc.
IMO, prices of stock are dictated a bit by supply and demand. Same goes for real estate. Everyone is jumping into the real estate market, so it's driving up the prices, which in turn attracts more investors, which drive up the price more. One of the reasons is that the stock market is in the tank b/c the US economy is doing so poorly. So actually it could be a good time to pick up blue chip stocks at a cheap price before the prices shoot back up. But do your research.
...my meager skills were no match for his devastating...