afternoon poker

[geForce]

How did you get 1 in 17 chances of getting pocket?

[joel]

[geForce]

Ohh okay.. I get it now

[geForce]

Just thinking that through.. Don't the odds get slimmer with each card that's dealt out?

For example, in a table of 8 players, after each person gets their first card, there are only 44 cards left in the deck.
By the time it gets around back to you to get your second card, there are only 37 cards left in the deck.

Plus, the odds of the 3 remaining cards you need to make a pocket are dealt to someone else is 3/51 (denominator variable to your position) for your first card and 3/37 before your second card is dealt. That possibility should decrease your theoretical odds too.

I think the the chances of getting pocket pair should be lower than 1/17. The chances of getting any one specific value card is already 4/52 or 1/13.

[joel]

[geForce]

[joel]

[se7entse7en]

I think:

If your first card's a J and you want another J, there there are still 3 Js left out of 51 cards - 1/17
If your first card's a J and you want a Q, there are still 4 Qs left out of 51 cards - 1/12.75
If your first card's a J and you want a Q spades, there's only 1 Q out of 51 cards - 1/51

If you don't have any cards and you want a J and a Q it would be
8/52 * 4/51 ~ 1/83

If you don't have any cards and you want two Js it would be:
4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221

[geForce]

[joel]

your math looks right to me shaun.

[joel]

i tried to the problem with the 4 players out of 8, it was a tough question... there are a lot of combinations when you have 8 players, 52! / 36! possibilities of cards actually which is a huge #, had trouble calculating the # of combinations where at least 4 ppl had pocket pairs though

[nature boy]

I think it's time for shaun to play poker with us.

[Duncan]

i bet you all these years of him not playing and every now and then just chilling and watching us play is all part of his master plan to study all our tells and pwn us when he eventually does play... i bet you he has coded simulations of us playing poker so he can practise taking our money

[se7entse7en]

I wish I was that observant. You could walk past me three times wearing three different t-shirts and I wouldn't even notice.

[Duncan]

i call bluff! it's all part of your hustling plan