by tiger » Tue Jan 19, 2010 7:27 pm
From what I understand of the HST, there is an exemption for houses/townhouses/condos that are under $525K, but you still have to pay the 5% GST.
The Olympic bubble has already past thru the real estate market. The HST will have some impact on the market, possibly lowering prices by perhaps 7% (the extra tax). Most likely it'll end up that there will be a drop around 3-4%. The builders get to claim back the PST that they will be paying. That retraction will probably be recovered within a year. Builders will always try to find ways to get affordable housing to the general public. That's what they do for a living. I think the HST just promotes more under the table stuff (cash).
What is more critical is the interest rates and how easy it will be to get a mortgage. If interest rates go up, it'll be harder to get a mortgage b/c your monthly payment will be larger. In turn, they won't lend you the money unless you have a larger downpayment or have someone co-sign. Also, if the interest rates go up, there are a lot of people that can't afford a 2% jump in interest rates, which is possible within a 5 yr term. So when they re-new, they find out they can't afford their home, and have to sell to buy a cheaper place. This will drive down the real estate market. Banks are watching this balance very closely.
Vancouver has reached a critical mass in term of population and immigration. Prices are going to continue on an upward trend b/c BC is an attractive place to live b/c of the economy, weather, multi-culturalism, etc. I know people who said 10 yrs ago that Vancouver was significantly undervalued compared to similar cities around the world. They still say that we are priced very well now. Just check out prices in San Francisco. The houses are older and cost more. For people coming from other parts of the world such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Soeul, London, etc., we are a total bargain.
Out in Surrey/Langley/Abbotsford, there is something pretty interesting going on. When the market slowed down last year (Olympic bubble burst? Hedging?), a lot of builders hopped out of the market and took in their profits. When the market picked up again 6 months later, land prices went soaring b/c land developers also cut back on their projects. It takes 18 months for land to be developed to the point where a builder and build on it. There wasn't enough land to build on, so the prices starting going up on any available land. Demand dropped during the recession, but supply dropped even more. The HST is probably going to cause builders to hedge their bets, so inventory will be lower than demand, and land prices will not crash.
One builder put the Olympics in perspective. How big of an impact do you think the Olympics in Whistler (and Vancouver) have had on the price of a home in a subdivision in Surrey/Langley/Abbotsford/Chilliwack? He thinks little or none at all. We have been in a real estate bull market for 8 years. That's unheard of. We've had our corrections and the market is able to sustain itself. People made a lot of money in these times, and they've been able to keep it in their pockets.
Some have suggested that with the world coming to see Vancouver/BC, you could see more immigration after 2 years. Although the Olympics are only 2 weeks, some come earlier and stay long after. When they see how great of a place it is to live, they will consider it as their summer/retirement homes.
Do you remember that soccer promo last summer, Zidane and friends? One of the South American soccer stars came with his wife. She loved Vancouver, and they bought a place. Survey's have also indicated that a large percentage of people in Ontario and Alberta would like to retire in BC.
Suppose 10 houses in Shaughnessy went on sale 20% lower than previous market values. How long do you think they will last? How much do you think the last one is going to sell for? Probably not 20% off.
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